This is Part 1 of a five-part series, The 2026 Ethiopian Coffee Harvest, with Matthew Thornton, founder of Arkena Coffee Market.
In this episode, the conversation focuses on the structural overview of the 2026 harvest. Eastern regions are experiencing reduced volumes, western regions are seeing stronger yields, quality is generally positive, and pricing has surged due to currency shifts, liquidity constraints, and increased competition in the cherry market.
Read MoreThis is Part 5 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.
In this concluding episode, the focus shifts to long-term futures for coffee farming. Pedro and Lee discuss prosperity versus survival, why most producers are locked into short-term decision-making, and how climate change, genetics, migration, and succession are reshaping coffee landscapes. The episode closes with a clear message: coffee’s future depends on whether producers are given the ability to dream, invest, and plan beyond today.
Read MoreThis is Part 4 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.
In this episode, the conversation focuses on direct trade, traceability, and transparency. Pedro explains why the number of intermediaries is not the issue — evidence is. From farm gate pricing to data integrity, the episode challenges the industry to move beyond marketing claims and into accountable, traceable sourcing relationships.
Read MoreThis is Part 3 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.
In this episode, the conversation focuses on biochar and carbon credits as tools for resilience — and the risks that emerge when they are rushed into practice. Pedro explains why biochar is not a silver bullet, how carbon markets can become extractive, and why poorly implemented biochar can harm soil biology and farm economics. The episode reinforces the need to centre farmer wellbeing, not financial incentives, in climate solutions.
Read MoreThis is Part 2 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.
In this episode, the conversation focuses on deforestation and the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), and what it has revealed about the coffee industry. Pedro explains why producers are more likely to lose market access due to supply chain opacity than deforestation itself, and why traceability failures shift unfair responsibility upstream.
The discussion also explores accountability, cost, greenwashing, and why responsible production must be paired with responsible consumption if forests are truly to be protected.
Read MoreThis is Part 1 of a five-part series, Coffee Farms in a Decade from Now, with Pedro Manga from Caravela Coffee.
In this episode, the conversation focuses on the reality of coffee farming in 2026: volatile prices, undervalued labour, climate shocks, and the deeper risk created when uncertainty is pushed upstream to producers. Pedro introduces Caravela’s definition of prosperity, the ability for farmers to plan, save, and invest in the future, and explains why recent price movements have shifted power dynamics for smallholder farmers.
Read MoreThis is Part 5 of a five-part series with Augusto Amaya from Arcadia Green Coffee, exploring how green coffee sourcing is diversifying as the industry evolves.
In this closing conversation, Augusto shares practical guidance for roasters and sourcing professionals navigating an unstable market: understand your supplier’s system, identify what happens inside the “black box,” follow geopolitics and market fundamentals, and build community resilience, because the calm market is not returning soon.
Read MoreThis is Part 4 of a five-part series with Augusto Amaya from Arcadia Green Coffee, exploring how green coffee sourcing is diversifying as the industry evolves.
Augusto explains how Arcadia manages risk by paying producers immediately, carrying logistics exposure, and allowing roasters to purchase in alignment with their cash flow. The conversation expands into the broader coffee crisis: risk does not disappear, it shifts, and roasters must understand the risk their suppliers are carrying behind the scenes.
Read MoreThis is Part 3 of a five-part series with Augusto Amaya from Arcadia Green Coffee, exploring how green coffee sourcing is diversifying as the industry evolves.
In this episode, the conversation focuses on the geopolitical realities impacting coffee in Colombia and across global markets. Augusto discusses shifting trade routes, EUDR compliance pressures, currency swings, and why risk management is becoming unavoidable for producers, exporters, and roasters moving into 2026.
Read MoreThis is Part 2 of a five-part series with Augusto Amaya from Arcadia Green Coffee, exploring how green coffee sourcing is diversifying as the coffee industry evolves.
In this episode, Lee Safar and Augusto discuss what it really means to source green coffee in a way that benefits all stakeholders, not just the buyer.
Augusto explains why traditional sourcing can feel like a “black box” for producers, and why transparency must work in both directions: roasters should know who grew the coffee, and producers should know exactly where their coffee is going.
They explore how Arcadia’s matchmaking model creates pride, stability, and long-term relationships, and why real relationship-building requires showing up in person, not just sending emails.
Read MoreThis is Part 1 of a five-part series with Augusto Amaya from Arcadia Green Coffee, exploring how green coffee sourcing is diversifying as the industry evolves.
In this episode, Augusto shares Arcadia’s approach to relationship-based sourcing: starting with roaster needs first, maintaining traceability that works both ways, and reducing risk by only purchasing coffee when a clear buyer is in place. The conversation explores volatility, financing pressure, and why sourcing must benefit every stakeholder across the chain.
Read MoreThis is Part 5 of a five-part series with Sean Warner from the Honduran Coffee Alliance, exploring how coffee pricing is set today and how it may change in the future.
In the final episode, Lee Safar and Sean Warner discuss potential alternatives to Arabica-dependent pricing, the implications of the C market disappearing, and what producer-led pricing models could look like in practice.
They reflect on resilience, power, and the importance of building pricing systems that can withstand ongoing volatility across the coffee supply chain.
Read MoreThis is Part 4 of a five-part series with Sean Warner from the Honduran Coffee Alliance, exploring how coffee pricing is set today and how it may change in the future.
In this episode, Lee Safar and Sean Warner explore direct trade as a proposed solution to pricing instability. They discuss how different trade models function, where power sits in pricing conversations, and why direct trade succeeds in some contexts while failing in others.
The conversation focuses on pricing references, long-term relationships, and what enables producers to maintain meaningful prices over time.
Read MoreThis is Part 3 of a five-part series with Sean Warner from the Honduran Coffee Alliance, exploring how coffee pricing is set today and how it may change in the future.
In this episode, Lee Safar and Sean Warner focus on the often-overlooked role of risk and liquidity in coffee pricing. While price receives most of the attention, this conversation highlights how payment timing and financing structures affect producers, roasters, and exporters.
They discuss the pressure that high prices place on cash flow, the role of multinationals in financing, and why payment terms can determine whether businesses remain viable during periods of volatility.
Read MoreThis is Part 2 of a five-part series with Sean Warner from the Honduran Coffee Alliance, exploring how coffee pricing is set today and how it may change in the future.
In this episode, Lee Safar and Sean Warner examine why coffee pricing is inherently complicated. They discuss the limitations of using the C price as a reference, the historical volatility of coffee markets, and why countries with vastly different production costs are often priced using the same benchmark.
Using Honduras as a case study, they explore how cost of production, quality, and payment timing affect pricing outcomes for producers.
Read MoreThis is Part 1 of a five-part series with Sean Warner from the Honduran Coffee Alliance, exploring how coffee pricing is set today and how it may change in the future.
In this episode, Lee Safar and Sean Warner unpack how coffee is currently priced across the supply chain. They discuss the role of the C market, differences in production costs between origins, spot coffee versus future contracts, and why rising retail prices do not necessarily translate into improved income for producers.
This episode sets the foundation for the rest of the series.
Read MoreThis is Part 5 of a 5-part series on the coffee industry in 2026 with Felipe Croce (FAF Coffees) and Angel Barrera (Belco).
The discussion critically examines the role of the Specialty Coffee Association, industry representation, corporate influence, and what meaningful preparation for 2026 may actually look like for coffee businesses.
Read MoreThis is Part 4 of a 5-part series on the coffee industry in 2026 with Felipe Croce (FAF Coffees) and Angel Barrera (Belco).
Lee Safar, Felipe Croce, and Angel Barrera examine how scale, capital, and consolidation are shaping the coffee industry, and what challenges small and medium businesses may face as corporate influence grows.
Read MoreThis is Part 3 of a 5-part series on the coffee industry in 2026 with Felipe Croce (FAF Coffees) and Angel Barrera (Belco).
This episode explores how the definition of “specialty” may evolve by 2026, what value means for producers, roasters, and consumers, and why clarity of values will be increasingly important for coffee businesses navigating a changing market.
Read MoreThis is Part 2 of a 5-part series on the coffee industry in 2026 with Felipe Croce (FAF Coffees) and Angel Barrera (Belco).
This episode focuses on geopolitical “tectonic plate” movements and what they mean for coffee businesses. The discussion covers currency volatility, the role of the US dollar, emerging alternatives such as stablecoins, and how exporters and importers may need to adapt to remain resilient in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
Read More
